Dae Hee Kwak, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Kinesiology, decided to try flipping a coin in 2011 to see if chance could outperform the experts on picks for the Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament. “We’ll see how it turns out at the end, as much higher points are assigned for later rounds,” he said.Ĭlose up of hand tossing coin via Getty Images. Of the top 48 teams (excluding mid-major auto-bids) in that snapshot, 40 earned NCAA Tournament bids in March 31 within two seed lines of their finishing point and nine exactly on their eventual seed line. The scores are based on ESPN’s bracket challenge, which gives players 10 points for each correct pick in Round 2, 20 points for Round 3, 40 in 4 and so on.īut he plans to persevere with the coin-toss strategy. Harkins released his first in-season bracket on Jan. This year, Kwak is at it again - tossing coins to see how those picks will perform against well-informed ones.Īs of Friday, his researched picks yielded a score of 110 while his coin-flipping practice got a score of 80. “Everyone’s bracket got blown,” Kwak said in an email to PBS NewsHour Weekend. In that year, none of the top seeded teams advanced to the Final Four. Kwak found that while participants’ reported more confidence when in control of their own picks, that confidence did not translate to increased winnings, or any winning at all. Kwak pinned the coin’s choice against well-researched picks by participants of a formal study on betting behaviors, the findings of which were recently published in the Journal of Gambling Studies.Īfter 63 flips, his chance bracket scores performed slightly higher than those of the study participants. Dae Hee Kwak, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Kinesiology, decided to try flipping a coin in 2011 to see if chance could outperform the experts on picks for the men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. The 2023 NCAA Division I mens basketball tournament involved 68 teams playing in a single-elimination tournament that determined the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I mens basketball national champion for the 202223 season. But by Saturday’s end, only one perfect bracket remained.ĭr. More than 11 million brackets were submitted to the ESPN Tournament Challenge in the days leading up to the 2015 Men’s NCAA March Madness Basketball Tournament.
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